Even with the production of more than eight million firearms and some 8.7 billion rounds of ammunition annually, the current rush to buy firearms and the crush to feed them with cartridges has still outstripped supply on both counts.
And by some estimates it may take one to up to two years before gun store shelves again are fully restocked with the myriad of calibers, loads and brands.
This demand-far-exceeding supply is particularly true for those calibers greatly favored for personal protection and also those calibers with multi-purpose-personal defense/target and varmint hunting.
Just how widespread is this dearth of firearms is seen in statistics compiled under the National Instant Criminal Background Check System maintained by the FBI. In March, the FBI saw nearly 2.4 million background checks (more than 76,000 daily) while in July the figure was 1.8 million such background searches.
Every month since January the system has set new background check records with more than 12 million such operations being conducted between January 1st and July 31st, national statistics reveal.
Various firearms-related Internet sites report too that gun sales in some stores have exceeded 95 percent of normal. And ammunition sales have leaped by nearly 140 percent, resulting in severe availability shortages.
Clearly, firearms and ammunition sales have reached new heights with no end in sight – and possibly may spill over to calibers and gauges normally considered almost exclusively used for hunting.
“I’ve stopped using the word ‘unprecedented.’ The term has lost its value,” said Mark Oliva, director of public affairs for the National Shooting and Sports Foundation.
Oliva says his group – which represents and lobbies on behalf of the firearms and ammunition industry – continues to conduct research into the on-going phenomena. It has learned, for instance, that of firearms buyers, 2.4 million bought their first “gun.”
“That’s a game changer,” Oliva says. “And we seen, too, that 40 percent of all gun buyers are women and 58 percent are Black.”
Perhaps not surprisingly the firearm of choice has as its pinnacle, the handgun. Underpinning this are what some might consider as being “tactical” or personal protection shotguns, and then AR-plaform rifles, Olivia says.
Not surprisingly then is how absent from store shelves are the ammunition for these firearms. Similarly, Internet sites that offer ammunition for these firearms are now frequented with the disclaimers “Not Available,” “Out Of Stock,” and “Keep Checking Back.”
Just as imposing is that when hard-to-find ammunition choices are located, prices are outrageous. A cursory check of several Internet ammunition web sites have shown that what 9 mm ammunition is available is selling some two to five times what the popular product did only a few months back.
And a 500-round brick of .22 rimfire ammunition of the kind one would use to plink tin cans or hunt squirrels with? Try nearly $100.
Not since the election years of 2008, 2012, and 2016 have such high costs and low inventory choked off the supply of ammunition, says Oliva.
The “why” is hardly a challenge to understand, says Oliva, as a “compilation” of reasons underscores the record sales of firearms and the record lack of ammunition.
Unlike their fishing tackle counterparts which saw the supply dwindle when China cut production and shipping due to that country’s imposed COVID-19 quarantine, for firearms and ammunition its an enormous societal convergence, Oliva says.
When mayors and governors ordered people to stay indoors and the police presence saw reductions, more people began thinking of shouldering the responsibility for their own safety and that of their families, says Oliva.
This concern morphed further with the explosive urban rioting and looting seen earlier this summer, Oliva says also.
“People began reacting to the fear for their own safety,” he says.
Not lost either has proven the mantra of “buy now what you can before you can’t” syndrome.
“There’s been a surplus of demand, and people are stocking-piling to be able to have it when they believe they may need it,” Oliva says.
The thing is, Oliva says, both firearms and – especially – ammunition manufacturing are each running full bore. Such makers simply cannot buy more manufacturing equipment, hire and train skilled workers, and scrounge around for raw material and assemble them in plants to produce even more stock.
That was done when the so-called “Trump Slump” struck and ammunition sales fell sharply. Meanwhile, at the same time some gun makers – particularly those who made AR-platform rifles - closed their doors for good when their inventory sat unshipped, and $1,000 models were going for fire-sale prices one-half of that figure, Oliva said.
“It’s a much more thoughtful process now,” Oliva says. “Companies don’t want to buy equipment they can’t use later nor eventually have to lay-off people they’ve spent time and money training.”
Thus, the demand-supply pendulum will take months or even years to achieve some sort of renewed stability.
Of course another wrinkle lies ahead regarding potential future firearms and ammunition sales, says Oliva. That that twist is based on the up-coming November elections. Should forces less than kind to the Second Amendment play out, says Oliva, “it will be ‘Katie, bar the door.’”
“If that happens, people will buy whatever they can get their hands on,” Oliva says.
- Jeffrey L. Frischkorn
JFrischk@Ameritech.net
JFrischk4@gmail.com
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