Scientists say Great Lakes high water levels are the "the new normal"

In perhaps a surprise to no one, Great Lakes water levels remain at historic highs throughout the basin and have had for some time now.

However, federal water monitoring officials are now adding the not-so good news that such environmentally unforgiving conditions are almost certainly to continue not just for the next year or two but for several to perhaps, many, years to come.

Yet it is not just the Great Lakes experiencing high water levels. The entire mid-section of the United States is undergoing a run on precipitation-induced flooding and high water levels. This impact is occurring throughout the Missouri and Mississippi watersheds that embrace the Ohio and Tennessee rivers and streams south, say the federal water scientists.

In short, these scientists are saying the Great Lakes’ combined high water levels have become “the new normal.

These scientists made their points during a live webiner presentation on Monday (April 13^th). Among the officials were those with the national Sea Grant Program, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Weather Service, the federal Office of Coastal Management, and other agencies.

Precipitation on average for the past 50 years has increased 10 percent to 15 percent, with four of the five wettest years in the Great Lakes Basin being set within the past decade, these officials said.

Complicating matters, the officials say also, the individual events themselves are generally – the “generally” being the operative word – producing more precipitation than had their counterpart rain and snow showers did decades past.

“Precipitation rates are the biggest that we’ve seen in recorded history,” says National Weather Service meteorologist Gary Garnett.

In looking at the upcoming spring-summer-fall period, the forecast for the short three-month term and the longer six-month term are each calling for a probable outcome of continued wetter than average period, also says John Allis, scientist with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

“The modeling is more difficult now, with record high water levels on all of the Great Lakes since 2015,”Allis told the webinar participants.

“But no one (individual Great Lake Basin) system is worse off than another.” Ellis said. “It’s a Great Lakes system-wide event that we’re dealing with now.”

And adding another peg to hang high water level blame on, says Brandon Krumweide with the federal office of Coastal Management, is that all five of the Great Lakes are all ready above the 100-percentile for seasonal rain and snow levels.

“But it’s not just the Great Lakes; it’s the entire central part of the country,” he said. “And these (high lake) levels almost certainly will continue not only through the next few years but also almost certainly for many more years to come.”

Consequently, the scientists all agree, the Great Lakes – perhaps especially Lake Erie – will see increased shoreline erosion, more challenges to lakeside structures, and a washing into and washing out of articles that will create all sorts of challenges. Among those risks will be hazards to navigation as small boaters in particular will increasingly encounter submerged trees and dislocated building materials, Krumweide says.

Yet don’t expect that high water levels will dissipate and dilute Lake Erie’s seasonal and annual toxic blue-green algae blooms. The reason is that the same heavy precipitation events that cause Lake Erie to rise also are the driving force behind the algae blooms.

Such rain showers dislodge the fertilizer that is poured onto crop fields and which makes its way into – chiefly – the extensive, 6,500-square mile Maumee River watershed. And its is this nutrient-laced fertilizer that is the algae’s energy source, the scientists say.

“It won’t dilute the problem,” agreed all of the scientists.

- By Jeffrey L. Frischkorn

Jfrischk@Ameritech.net

JFrischk4@gmail.com